GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of the standard of living of a given country, as it reflects the average wealth of each person residing in a country. It is therefore the standard method used to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other.
With 2019 coming to a close, we decided to take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita from 2019 to 2023 for the 127 countries we cover to get an idea of what countries are the poorest currently and which will be making a leap toward becoming wealthier in the coming years.
The projections used in this study are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world-renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
Here Aer Countries With The Most Poverty 2020
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 1514
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 1350
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 2351
Uzbekistan is last on the list of poorest countries according to 2019 GDP per capita, which is forecast to come in at USD 1350. The country’s economic growth was fast between 2004 and 2016, lifting significant portions of the country out of poverty.
A country rich in commodities, Uzbekistan was aided by high commodities prices and increased exports of gas, gold and copper, which generated state revenues that financed large increases in investment and wages that bolstered private consumption.
Unfortunately, in the period between 2013 and 2016, commodities prices came crashing down along with the weak performance of Russia and China, key trade partners, adversely affected the economy.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 1203
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 1266
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 1488
Kyrgyzstan is ninth on the list with an expected 2019 GDP per capita of USD 1266. A landlocked, largely mountainous country with just over 6 million inhabitants, the Kyrgyz Republic recently adopted a parliamentary system in 2011.
Having experienced considerable political and social instability with weak governance and high corruption since gaining independence in 1991, the country’s current democracy is a far cry from those days. Nonetheless, corruption is still pervasive in the public sector, which constrains the country’s economic growth potential.
The Kyrgyz economy is also vulnerable to external shocks due to its overreliance on its massive gold mine, Kumtor, which accounts for about 10% of GDP, as well as remittances, which amount to about 30% of GDP.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 1037
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 1159
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 1502
Number eight on the list of poorest economies is Tanzania with an expected USD 1159 GDP per capita for 2019. Tanzania’s economy has been very consistent over the last decade averaging between 6 and 7% growth every year.
According to the World Bank, the poverty rate has also steadily declined, however, the absolute number of people living in poverty has not due to the high growth rate of its population over that time.
Economic prospects for Tanzania depend on infrastructure investment, improving the business environment, increasing agricultural productivity, amongst others and growth prospects for next year remain strong.
2016 GDP per Capita: USD 884
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 1122
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 1508
Back to Africa now with number seven on the list, Ethiopia is located in the Horn of Africa, which gives it a great strategic jumping-off point, as it is close to the Middle East and its markets.
Although it is technically landlocked, it’s a tiny bordering neighbour, Djibouti acts as its main port. Ethiopia has grown rapidly since the turn of the century and is currently the fastest growing country in Africa, although extremely poor as evidenced by its projected 2019 GDP per capita of just USD 1122.
Along with Ethiopia’s rapid economic growth came significant reductions in poverty with over 55% of Ethiopians living in extreme poverty in 2000 dropping to 33.5% in 2011, according to the World Bank.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 776
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 923
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 993
Haiti is number six on the list with an expected GDP per capita of USD 923. Haiti is extremely vulnerable to extreme weather and natural disasters with 90% of the country’s population at risk according to the World Bank.
These natural disasters batter the country in more ways than one, including the economy. The 2010 earthquake for example did damage equivalent to 32% of the country’s GDP.
Although there is some positive sentiment over Haiti’s political situation, as new president Jovenel Moïse took office in February of last year and the new parliament and cabinet were ratified later in the year, which should allow the country to accelerate reforms and move public programs forward to create more sustainable development for all Haitians, the country remains the poorest in the Americas.
2016 GDP per Capita: USD 762
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 913
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 1079
Yemen is in the midst of a massive civil war that has caused a catastrophic humanitarian crisis, which goes a long way to explaining the country’s place on this list of the poorest countries in the world.
Yemen is forecast to have a GDP per capita of USD 913 in 2019. Basic services across the country are on the verge of collapse, as half of the population is currently living in areas directly affected by the conflict and millions of Yemenis have been forcibly displaced.
Yemen is also facing the worst famine in a century, according to the United Nations, with 14 million people at risk of starvation. After peace talks failed to get off the ground in September, fighting only intensified.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 777
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 861
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 1159
Tajikistan is number four on the list of poorest countries with a projected 2019 GDP per capita of USD 861. Tajikistan gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union, however, a civil war broke out shortly after, which lasted five years until 1997. Since then, political stability and foreign aid have allowed the country’s economy to grow, reducing poverty rather remarkably.
According to the World Bank, poverty fell from over 83% to 47% between 2000 and 2009 and fell further from 37% to 30% between 2012 and 2016. Since then, poverty reduction has regrettably stagnated, however, it is projected to fall from 30% to 25% by 2019 as growth picks up.
The economy, which is highly reliant on remittances, is expected to grow strongly in again 2019. Improving labour market dynamics, and a continued robust inflow of remittances supported by Russia’s ongoing economic recovery should buoy private consumption.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 726
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 759
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 959
Uganda finds itself in third place on the list with a 2019 projected GDP per capita of USD 759. Although this represents a large leap from the level of the first two on the list, Uganda is a bit of a strange case.
Following the 1986 armed conflict, the ruling political party National Resistance Movement (NRM), enacted a series of structural reforms and investments that led to a period of significant economic growth and poverty reduction all the way up to 2010.
In the last five years or so, economic growth has slowed and consequently so has the pace of poverty reduction. There are a variety of factors that have brought on the slowdown, however, it has been attributed mostly to adverse weather, private sector credit constraints, the poor execution of public sector projects and unrest in their neighbour South Sudan, which has flooded the country with refugees fleeing the country and subdued exports.
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 429
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 502
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 648
The second poorest country in the world is Mozambique with a forecasted GDP per capita of USD 502 for 2019. The former Portuguese colony has high hopes of transforming its economy based on the prospects of abundant natural gas fields discovered in 2011.
The country recently took an important step toward said transformation with the approval of a USD 20 billion Anadarko liquified natural gas plant in early-2018, which envisages exploiting the country’s vast deposits of natural gas.
Economic growth is expected to accelerate this year on the back of higher prices for natural gas. FocusEconomics panellists see a growth of 3.5% in 2018 and 4.1% in 2019.
1. Democratic Republic of Congo
2017 GDP per Capita: USD 439
2019 GDP per Capita: USD 475
2023 GDP per Capita (projected): USD 551
Although the DRC has abundant natural resources, unfortunately with a projected 2019 GDP per capita of USD 475, the country is in the unenviable position of being the poorest country in the world. There has been severe political unrest in recent years, as calls for President Joseph Kabila, who took power after the assassination of his father in 2001, reached a fever pitch in 2018.
Kabila was reelected in 2011 in a controversial election and had since postponed elections several times. Finally, in August, Kabila declared that he would not seek re-election and named a successor candidate.
The next presidential election has been slated for 23 December and opposition parties selected well-known businessman and veteran legislator, Martin Fayulu, as the unity candidate on 11 November following lengthy talks in Geneva.
Source: | Focus Economics